President Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied at 44% apiece among registered voters heading into the 2024 election year, according to the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll of 2023.
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The survey of 1,533 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Dec. 14 to Dec. 18, represents a reality check at a time when the press has been far more focused on Biden's vulnerabilities than Trump's. In fact, it is Trump's underlying problems — including his criminal trials and unpopular plans — that may pose the bigger electoral risk in next year's election, the results suggest.
It's true, for instance, that Biden's long-standing lead over Trump in the Yahoo News/YouGov poll faded this fall after averaging about 4.5 percentage points between March and August. Yet Trump has not been able to capitalize on Biden's meager job-approval rating — currently 37% approve, 57% disapprove among all Americans — to expand his appeal and pull ahead.
Instead, Trump's support among registered voters has remained at 44% or lower.
Last month, when Biden's support dipped to 42%, that was enough to give Trump a narrow edge (within the margin of error). Now Biden has ticked back up, and the two candidates are again level. While other national polls have shown larger swings, the Yahoo News/YouGov survey portends a very close campaign (consistent with the last two presidential elections) if Biden and Trump face off again in 2024.
Even when voters are offered the choice of “another candidate” in addition to Biden and Trump — an option that 12% select — the two presidents remain tied at 41%, implying that third-party bids are unlikely to upend the fundamental dynamics of the contest.